The press releases announcing the Giving USA Foundation Report on Giving for 2008 are out. After all the hand-wringing . . .giving goes down about 2%. That’s $6.4 billion out of the $314.1 billion given in 2007. I am stunned that there isn’t dancing in the streets. To listen to many in the fundraising profession–the bottom had fallen out from under giving in America. Campaigns were stopped, fundraisers gave up, foundations cried poor, corporations cited the economy. It was the worst philanthropic period in the history of our country.And giving is down 2%? You know the $6.4 billion drop is less than what is predicted by the Center on Philanthropy’s research office on the impact of the President’s still proposed tax increase on families with incomes of $200,000 a year; they estimate that to be an $8 billion hit. Many in the media said that that loss was fine; it is still in the President’s budget. This year’s report by Giving USA should be heralded as a victory for philanthropy in America. With this report, they have reinforced our pride in the spirit of America. This past year, we withstood the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression, and giving only went down 2%. Hardest hit were donors giving to their own foundations, which dropped 22%. Remember, however, they only distribute 5% of their asset base. Therefore in terms of direct impact on philanthropy, this slice of the pie is only 5% of the decrease, not the gross amount. Giving USA’s standard of counting gifts to foundations has always stuck in my craw as a set of bad numbers. Every other aspect of this segment of the report characterizes direct support– social services, education, etc. But the dollars that go into a foundation are counted twice—once when they are given and again when they are distributed. Also, a disproportionate amount of money is now being sunk into personal foundations, which still only represents 10%+ of all giving—and yet, literally none of it goes to philanthropic objectives in the year it is gifted.The next biggest hit, according to Giving USA, was to social service organizations. Hey, wait a minute. . . Didn’t I hear many commentators in the philanthropic arena talk about how social service organizations do better in a bad economy? How many foundations or individuals are telling you they are now giving only to safety-net institutions? A 16% drop in giving to social services would indicate someone is not giving to those organizations. In fairness, the social service arena is not always staffed with the strongest fundraising talent and many are frequently seduced by the headlines of nobody giving (see last week’s blog). However, our social service clients who are participating in our Initiative Fundraising based on the Google Study conducted by the Center on Philanthropy (also the subject of two case studies that will come out in 2010 in Adrian Sargent’s book on fundraising cases) have fared exceptionally well this past year. The report indicates giving by foundations, corporations and individuals all decreased. It cites that even bequests went down. Wow, there is an economically driven indicator! Can you believe fewer people included nonprofits in their estates 40 years ago because they knew there would be an economic crisis in 2008? This accounts for nearly one third of the actual dollar decline reported. Over the next several weeks we are going to take an in-depth look at the Giving USA Report. Hartsook Companies, Inc. has been invited several times to join Giving USA or its predecessor AAFRC–a trade group for consultants. While both groups are certainly well meaning, they are largely ineffective in representing the industry. They have made Giving USA Report a reputable report–especially after they handed it off to the Center on Philanthropy at IU and their research people to manage. However, its finding are going to undergo greater scrutiny in the future as each segment begins to monitor its own fundraising. As an example, Giving USA says educational fundraising went down 9% when Council of Aid to Education (CAE) reported an increase of 6.2%. Who do you believe? Frankly, I am betting on the CAE since they focus exclusively on their segment of philanthropy.
Giving USA Reports Victory for Philanthropy!
Jul 9, 2009 | Fundraising In A Tough Economy
Giving USA is more than the pie charts showing where money came from and where it went. It is a detailed chronicle of philanthropy in America. As an historical record and chronicle of events, it is incredibly thorough and is on the shelf remarkably quickly. As the director of the Voluntary Support of Education (VSE) survey, conducted since 1957 by the Council for Aid to Education (CAE), I offer the following comments.
CAE’s data on giving to institutions of higher education is the gold standard. We are focused on maintaining the definitive record on giving to higher education institutions in the United States. We are just now starting to receive surveys for the academic fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2009. (I have received three surveys so far.) So, the jury is still out on what happened in higher education fundraising between July 1, 2008 and June 30, 2009. CAE doesn’t forecast. We wait for the hard numbers, and we estimate based on a large volume of surveys that contain 85 to 90 percent of all the contributions to higher education institutions.
Giving USA’s education number differs from CAE’s in three ways. First, it covers a different time period. Second, it is a forecast, not an estimate. Third, Giving USA’s education data include giving to more organizations than colleges and universities. The results from the VSE study and Giving USA will, therefore, always be different. If they are ever the same, it will be a coincidence.
On the topic of forecasting versus estimating, if we want Giving USA to cease forecasting, then we will have to wait longer for the data. That is the tradeoff. If we want harder numbers, we can look at Giving USA’s 2007 figures in its 2008 book. If we want the best forecast a team of economists and practitioners can get a year ahead of any hard data, we turn to Giving USA’s projected 2008 numbers.
We may not think of events that happened six months ago as the future, but where hard data are concerned, they reside there. Even the government, with much greater resources, continually revises such data series as Gross Domestic Product and the Consumer Price Index. In fact, some of the information Giving USA relies on is regularly revised by source organizations, such as the Commerce Department, the IRS, and the Treasury Department, and Giving USA then has to revise also.
Another relevant matter is that in economic booms or crises, Giving USA has to prove what we already know instinctively. Who doubts that giving declined to a variety of institutions in recent months? But, proving something takes longer than being pretty sure about something, and the standard is stricter for proof than for being pretty sure. When some of the independent variables that affect giving change as dramatically as they just have, Giving USA’s forecasts could be off by more than when the economic landscape is more stable and when the changes in that landscape are incremental
But I’m glad the Giving USA advisors and staff stuck to their models because models are worth nothing if you apply them and alter them intuitively. In the case of philanthropic trends, the models will be right more often than intuition will be right. So, while we wait for the hard data, modeling is the way to go.
CAE provides data to Giving USA and serves on its advisory committee. We are collegial organizations, not competitors or colluders. As more subsectors collect data about themselves, this will help Giving USA forecast. Giving USA is doing an excellent job of amassing a large volume of information from various sources and publishing this valuable record. CAE looks forward to a continuing relationship with Giving USA that will benefit the nonprofit sector.